By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Cheneso)…is located approximately 229 NM northeast of Europa Island
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Cheneso)
According to JTWC Warning number 9, sustained winds were 75 knots, with gusts to 90 knots.
Tropical cyclone 08s has remained quasi-stationary with slow-erratic motion over the past 12 hours and has weakened slightly due to the upwelling of cooler water as well as interaction with land over the eastern semicircle.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tightly curved banding wrapping into a ragged, cloud-filled eye. A microwave image reveals a weak eyewall surrounding a large 30-35 NM diameter microwave eye, with extensive deep convective banding.
TC 08S should remain quasi-stationary through 24 hours within the competing steering pattern with upwelling cool water expected to slow intensification. additionally, interaction with land will also hinder significant intensification.
After 24 hours, the ridge to the south is expected to gradually weaken with the approach of a deep upper-level trough which will shift the ridge to the east and allow TC 08S to accelerate poleward.
After 36 hours, the ridge to the south is expected to gradually weaken with the approach of a deep upper-level trough which will shift the ridge to the east and allow TC 08S to accelerate poleward.
TC 08S will peak at 100 knots near 48 hours as it tracks over warmer water and outflow vents into the westerlies to the south. The ridge will gradually strengthen to the east driving TC 08S southward then eventually southeastward after 72 hours when the system rounds the ridge and begins to interact with the subtropical westerlies.