By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
Northwest Pacific Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W…which is located approximately 221 NM south-southeast of Legazpi, Philippines.
A microwave image and numerous surface observations depict a loosely organized, broad monsoon depression like system with 15-20 knot winds and centrally located convection aloft.
Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with robust outflow and strong divergence aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models generally agree on the slow development of a monsoon depression that remains quasi-stationary over the next 24-48 hours. .
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development remains low.
South Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 496 NM east of Diego Garcia.
Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a low-level circulation center (llcc) partially obscured by deep convection overhead. A microwave image reveals formative banding wrapping into a defined llcc. A partial pass reveals an elongated circulation with a swath of 20-25 knot winds in the southern quadrant.
Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with moderate outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by low to moderate (15-20 knot) northeasterly vertical wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement that invest 96S will remain quasi-stationary over the next 24-48 hours before meandering southwestward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 27 knots.
The potential for the development is low.