Invest 97W / Invest 96S / Invest 90S
Saturday, January 14, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W…which is located approximately 101 NM east-northeast of Davao, Philippines.

An enhanced infrared satellite image and numerous surface observations depict a loosely organized, broad monsoon depression like system with 15-20 knot winds and centrally located convection aloft.

Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with robust outflow and strong divergence aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models generally agree on the slow development of a monsoon depression that remains quasi-stationary over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development remains low.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 438 NM east of Diego Garcia.

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep flaring convection sheared to the west. Another image reveals weak convective
banding wrapping into a loosely defined llcc with the bulk of the
convection offset to the west.

Recent scatterometry data reveals a well-defined circulation with a large swath of 20 knots winds in the northern and southern quadrant and a swath of 25 knot winds just to the west of the llcc.

Environmental conditions show Invest 96S is currently under an area of moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, however strong equatorward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures remain conducive for development.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 96S will remain quasi-stationary over the next 24-36 hours before taking on a westward track.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development is upgraded to medium.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90S…which is located approximately 662 NM north-northeast of Mauritius.

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an elongated low-level circulation (llc) partially obscured by weak disorganized convection overhead…with a defined but elongated circulation with 15-20 knot winds in the eastern and southern peripheries of the llc.

Environmental conditions shows that 90S has limited outflow aloft but low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface conditions.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 90S will be slow to develop as it meanders westward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development is low.