Invest 96S / Invest 90S
Monday, January 16, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 543 NM north of Mauritius, La Reunion.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation (llc) with formative convective banding over the western quadrant and flaring convection obscuring the center. A microwave image confirms fragmented convective banding wrapping into the llc from the southwest.

Upper-level analysis reveals a bubble of low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear around the llc with high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear along the northern and southern edges of the system. Other environmentals suggest favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that 90S will enter a Fujiwhara state with 96S and become absorbed within it over the next few days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots.

The potential for the development remains medium.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90S…which is located approximately 311 NM south of Diego Garcia.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating llc with persistent deep convection on the western periphery as well as over the llc. A microwave image partial pass, depicts the deep convection over the llc.

Upper-level analysis reveals 96S has a slightly larger bubble of low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear with the extent of the more unfavorable areas of shear further away to the north and south. Other environmental analysis shows sea surface temperatures in the area are warm, and vorticity signatures are continuing to increase.

Like 90S, global models are coming together on showing the two having a Fujiwhara effect on one another with 96S winning out and absorbing 90S over the next few days before heading towards Madagascar.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development is upgraded to medium.