Remnants of TC 06S / Invest 96W
Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Remnants of TC 06S…which is located approximately 58 NM southeast of Broome, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict low-level cloud lines wrapping tightly into a partially exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center with persistent deep convective banding over the western periphery.

Animated Radar Loops from Broome.

Global models now agree that 06S will remain on an east-southeast trajectory towards the northern territory where it will eventually dissipate over land beyond 60 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 37 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone with the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.


NW Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96W…which is located approximately 463 NM east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a fully obscured low level circulation with a broad area of flaring and deepening convection to the north.

Environmental analysis indicates 96W is in a moderately favorable environment for development with moderate (20-25 knot) wind shear, good poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 96W will track westward and develop over the next 24 to 48 hours. Numerical models also indicate a significant northerly wind burst throughout the region which is forecast to produce upwards of 30 knot winds to the west of 96W as the system transits across the South China Sea over the coming days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 17 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone with the next 24 hours is low.