Invest 96W / Invest 93P
Thursday, January 5, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:


NW Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96W…which is located approximately 260 NM southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad area of flaring and deepening convection to the north.

Environmental analysis indicates 96W is in a moderately favorable environment for development with moderate (20-25 knot) wind shear, good poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 96W will track westward and develop over the next 24 to 48 hours. Numerical models also indicate a significant northerly wind burst throughout the region which is forecast to produce upwards of 30 knot winds to the west of 96W as the system transits across the South China Sea over the coming days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 17 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone with the next 24 hours remains low.


SW Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93P…which is located approximately 122 NM south-southwest of Cairns, Australia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an organizing area of deep convection wrapping into a low level circulation.

Although the system is currently over land, moderate outflow aloft and low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear will be conducive for development once the system emerges over water.

Global models are in good agreement that 93P will track eastward and emerge over the Coral Sea within the next 12-24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone with the next 24 hours is medium.