Invest 96S
Thursday, December 1, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The 2022 Northeast Pacific Hurricane Season has ended. Routine issuance of the PDC Tropical Cyclone Daily Report will resume on May 15, 2023. During the off-season, PDC Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

2022 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeastern Pacific

The 2022 Pacific hurricane season was a fairly active Pacific hurricane season, with nineteen named storms (including two that crossed over from the Atlantic), ten hurricanes, and four major hurricanes forming. 

The first named storm of the season, Hurricane Agatha, formed on May 28, and made landfall two days later at Category 2 strength on the Saffir–Simpson scale, making it the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall during the month of May in the Eastern Pacific basin.

In June, Hurricane Blas and Tropical Storm Celia caused heavy rainfall over southwestern Mexico despite remaining offshore. The season’s first major hurricane, Hurricane Bonnie, entered into the basin from the Atlantic on July 2, after crossing Nicaragua as a tropical storm, becoming the first storm to survive the crossover from the Atlantic to the Pacific since Hurricane Otto in 2016.

In September, tropical storms Javier, Lester, and Madeline all caused flooding across the Pacific coast of Mexico, though none left severe damage. Hurricane Kay also formed that month, and struck the Baja California Peninsula before bringing gale-force winds to the west coast of the continental United States, becoming the first Pacific hurricane to do so since Hurricane Nora 25 years earlier.

In early October, Hurricane Orlene became the most intense storm of the season before weakening and making landfall in Sinaloa as a Category 1 hurricane, resulting in heavy rainfall and flooding. Also, Hurricane Julia became the second storm of the season to cross over from the Atlantic basin intact, and made landfall in El Salvador soon thereafter.

In late October, Hurricane Roslyn became the fourth major hurricane of the season and was the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane since Hurricane Patricia in 2015. Altogether, six named storms made landfall during the season.

Central Pacific:

The 2022 Central Pacific Hurricane Season has ended. Routine issuance of the PDC Tropical Cyclone Daily Report will resume on June 1, 2023. During the off-season, PDC Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

2022 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2022 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, produced one tropical cyclone that moved into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility.

This season’s activity is below the seasonal average. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line north of the equator. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.

Hurricane Darby was the only tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific. Darby moved into the basin on July 14 as a Category 2 hurricane, weakened to a tropical storm on July 15, then dissipated south of Hawaii on July 17. (Note: these are preliminary values. Also, the dates provided are Universal Coordinated Time [UTC], which is 10 hours ahead of Hawaii Standard Time.)

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: As Darby passed south of the state on July 16, it brought 1 to 3 inches of rain to the east side of the Big Island and also generated advisory-level surf of 8 to 12 feet for east-facing shores on July 16. There were no significant flooding problems reported.

Unrelated to Darby, a historic south swell, generated by a winter storm in the southern hemisphere, also occurred from July 13-19, impacting property and damaging Hoone Road in Poipu on the island of Kauai.

In addition, moisture from former Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, which had dissipated in the East Pacific earlier in the month, moved across the state on July 12-13. Several rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches were observed along the windward slopes of the islands, with an event maximum of over 6 inches occurring over the West Maui Mountains. No significant flooding problems were reported.

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 435 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

Animated enhanced infrared imagery and a microwave pass depicts sparse convection north of a low level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions for development with weak upper level radial outflow, offset by warm sea surface temperatures, and weak (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global models are in fair agreement for 96S to steadily track south and only slightly intensify as the environment gradually improves beyond the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.