By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Darby)…is located about 400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Cyclone 06E (Estelle)...is located about 290 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
Northeast Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 06E (Estelle)
Advisory number 3
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
Estelle is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Saturday morning, with that heading at a similar forward speed continuing through late Monday. Estelle is forecast to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Estelle could become a hurricane by Saturday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Darby)
Advisory number 27
WEAKENING DARBY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST…EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED SURF TO THE BIG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND
Darby is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the remnant center of Darby will pass south of the Big Island Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Darby is expected to weaken to a remnant low Saturday, before dissipating Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
An area of convection (Invest 96A) is located approximately 157 NM west-northwest of Jafrabad, India
Animated multi-spectral imagery show a partly exposed low level circulation center with tightly wrapping low level cloud lines and flaring convection to the west.
Environmental analysis shows low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, easterly outflow and relatively cool sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement the system will develop and track northwestward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to medium.