By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Darby)…is located about 1220 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Darby)
Advisory number 11
DARBY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
Darby is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a gradual turn to the west-northwest beginning Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Darby is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Darby is likely to change little in strength during the next day or so, but rapid weakening is expected after that.
Darby is a very compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).
>>> Offshore of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing some disorganized showers.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week.
The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two, then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Central East Pacific:
There are no active tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated in the north central Pacific by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on Hurricane Darby centered about 1950 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Hurricane Darby is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Thursday.
>>> Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90W…which is located approximately 160 NM east-northeast of Legazpi, Philippines
According to the JTWC…animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts flaring convection to the west of a weakly defined low level circulation.
Upper level analysis indicates favorable vertical wind shear (5 to 10 knots), fair westward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models generally indicate weak model development for Invest 90W.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.