Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) / Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) / Invest 92P – Pacific
Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, February 5, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 1505 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 553 NM east-southeast of Cocos Islands

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince)

According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds were 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a quickly developing pinhole eye feature, in a repeat of 24 hours ago, when a pinhole eye emerged. TC 13S (Vince) remains very compact, and the cycling convection has persisted through the last day, successfully pushing back against the moderate easterly shear.

A long-term loop of the enhanced infrared (eir) imagery indicates the system has been flirting with an eye through most of the day but just like yesterday, the eye appears to have peaked right at analysis time and is already filling in a bit.

The environment is favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, strong poleward outflow and low to moderate easterly shear. The latest cimss amv analysis suggests the upper-level flow pattern is breaking around the system, reducing localized shear even further.

TC 13s will continue to track southwestward through 96 hours, along the northern side of a complex and dynamic ridging pattern. Track speeds will slow down a knot or two over the next one to two days as a mid-latitude trough passes by to the south. Not strong enough to induce TC 13S southward, the trough will be strong enough to break the ridge and loosen the gradient a bit. The ridge builds and repositions to the east of TC 13S by 72 hours and track speeds increase once again as the system approaches an inflection point. TC 13S will turn sharply poleward after 96 hours, as it quickly rounds the axis of the str which will also be sliding northward simultaneously.

In term of intensity, the system has likely already intensified to at least 100 knots just since analysis time as indicated by the latest adt estimate of 99 knots. Additional intensification is likely, as another burst of deep convection is currently developing on the northern side of the eye and rotating upshear. However, it is unlikely that the system can maintain 100-plus knot intensity for long as shear is forecast to increase a notch after 48 hours, and eyewall replacement cycles present an ever-present possibility.

Steady-state intensity around 90-95 knots is forecast from 48 to 72 hours out, as competing environmental factors will offset one another. A weakening of the deep layer shear and in increase in sea surface temperatures and poleward outflow should fuel a slight intensification up through 96 hours. Rapid weakening is expected after 96 hours as the system will face rapidly increasing shear, significant dry air entrainment and cooling sea surface temperatures as it shifts quickly poleward.

 

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 10, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a highly asymmetric structure and a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc), displaced to the east of a steadily weakening convection. A well-timed image revealed a well defined lower-level microwave eye or low emissivity region, with shallow banding features wrapping in from the south and east. A well-defined microwave eye and strong eyewall like features are evident, though they are displaced 70 NM to the northwest, consistent with the strong southeasterly shear.

The environment is marginal at best, with strong southeasterly shear, upper-level convergent flow and dry air intrusion offsetting otherwise favorable sea surface temperatures and supportive outflow aloft.

Tropical cyclone 14S (Taliah) is forecast to continuing to track generally westward through the entire forecast period. Some waviness in the track is expected as the ridge shifts slightly over the course of the next four days but
overall, the str to the south will remain the dominant steering influence up to 72 hours. After this point, TC 14S will slow down significantly as the ridging pattern breaks down due to the passage of a mid-latitude trough to the south, generating a weak steering environment which will persist beyond the end of the forecast.

In terms of intensity, strong easterly shear is forecast to persist for the next 48 to 60 hours, accompanied by significant dry air intrusion, especially from the east. There may be times when convection is able to momentarily push back against the shear, but overall it is unlikely these convective bursts will sustain themselves in the face of 25-30 knot shear. The system will steadily weaken under these negative influences, down to about 50 knots by 36 hours. Conditions look to improve after 48 hours, with a reduction in shear, increase in moisture and development of a poleward outflow channel, which will enable the system to re-intensify from 48 to 120 hours.

 

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 298 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

Animated enhanced infrared imagery (eir) as well as a microwave  image depicts a compact, elongated low level circulation center (llcc) with prominent curved convective banding to the northern and southern periphery.

At the moment good environmental conditions are generally favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and strong radial outflow aloft.

However, there is a short window of opportunity for development, and global models indicate over the next 24-36 hours if the area of convection (92P) does not reach warning criteria it will be over taken by high shear and dry air entrainment.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.