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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, June 8, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone Barbara…is located about 205 miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 03E (Cosme)…is located about 665 miles south of the southern tip of Baja CA
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone Barbara
BARBARA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
According to the NHC advisory number 3
Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico.
Tropical Cyclone 03E (Cosme)
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM COSME
According to the NHC advisory number 2
Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A slow down and turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
>>> An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Western Pacific
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92W, which is located approximately 139 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts little to no convective activity associated with the extremely broad low-level circulation (llc) that is slowly transiting toward central Luzon. Another image depicts the elongated nature of the circulation with 10 knot winds along the
northern and eastern peripheries of the system.
Environmental analysis reveals a moderately favorable environment, with moderate equatorward
outflow aloft and low to moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots. 92W will also have warm sea surface temperatures to help development.
Global deterministic and ensemble models are currently in good agreement on a westward track into the South China Sea over the next 48 hours with steady intensification as the system consolidates.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.