Subtropical Cyclone 17L (Nicole) / Invest 97L
Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Subtropical Cyclone Nicole…is located about 250 miles northeast of the Northwestern Bahamas

NICOLE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY

According to the NHC Advisory number 7A

Nicole is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-southwest motion is expected through early Wednesday. A westward to west-northwest motion is forecast to begin later on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early Thursday. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday when it is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane when it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by Wednesday night./span>

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge…3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina…2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown Florida…2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach…2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Ochlockonee River…2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay…1 to 2 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida…1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic:

Invest 97L

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 950 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores Islands has decreased this evening, and the surface circulation has become considerably less defined.

Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development, and the low is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent