Tropical Cyclone 17L (Nicole)
Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone Nicole…is located about 75 miles east-northeast of West Palm Beach, Florida

NICOLE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA…BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS

According to the NHC Advisory number 12

Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early
Thursday.

Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and into the Carolina’s Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Nicole makes landfall along the Florida east coast. Nicole is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485 miles
(780 km), especially to the north of the center. A WeatherFlow station at Juno Beach Pier recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h), and a C-MAN station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting in the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring along portions of the east coast of Florida and will spread northward within the warning area through Georgia and South Carolina today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight./span>

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge…3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina…2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown Florida…2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach…2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Indian Pass…2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay…1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday night:

* Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.
* Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New York: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New York Thursday into Friday night, where flooding impacts will be possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern South Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.