By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone Nicole…is located about 20 miles north of Tallahassee, Florida
NICOLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
According to the NHC Advisory number 16
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the north is forecast overnight. Nicole is expected to accelerate north-northeastward on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move into southwestern
Georgia later tonight and Friday, and across the western Carolina’s later on Friday,
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. The system is expected to dissipate as it merges with a frontal boundary over the eastern United States by Friday night.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida through tonight.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge…3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River…3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina…2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown Florida…2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass…2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft
* Jupiter Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida …1 to 3 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina…1 to 2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday:
* Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.
* Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England today through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be possible.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado threat will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia and the Carolina’s later today through Friday morning.
SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.