Tropical Cyclone 15L
Sunday, October 30, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Potential-Tropical Cyclone 15L…located about 480 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman

 

Potential-Tropical Cyclone 15L

NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DISTURBANCE

NHC Advisory number 2

The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected through Monday, and the system could become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday.

A faster rate of strengthening is expected starting Monday night, and the system could be near hurricane strength Tuesday night or Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the northeast of the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Jamaica beginning Monday afternoon and are possible on Grand Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday evening, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.