Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa) / Tropical Cyclone 16L (Martin)
Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)…located about 235 miles east of Belize City

Tropical Cyclone 16L (Martin)…located about 680 miles east-northeast of Bermuda

 

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)

HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LISA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

NHC Advisory number 10

Lisa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, move near Belize late on Wednesday and over southeastern Mexico on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on Wednesday as it approaches Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Mexico and Guatemala beginning Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions of Jamaica, eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras, and Guatemala.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras northward to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and will begin to affect Central America later today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Tropical Cyclone 16L (Martin)

MARTIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO

NHC Advisory number 3

Martin is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). A much faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Martin is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday before transitioning to a powerful extratropical system by early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

>>> Southwestern Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a few days near the Greater Antilles or over the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of the system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent