By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)…located about 60 miles west of Belize City
Tropical Cyclone 16L (Martin)…located about 650 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)
LISA BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO BELIZE, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
NHC Advisory number 14
Lisa is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center of Lisa across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will continue while the center of Lisa moves farther inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of Guatemala and Yucatan in the Tropical Storm Warning areas.
RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:
4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz.
2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche.
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Elsewhere, a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Yucatan and up to 1 foot for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of Central America during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 16L (Martin)
MARTIN FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY
NHC Advisory number 7
Martin is moving toward the northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). A turn to the north and a rapid increase in forward speed are expected on Thursday, taking Martin over the far North Atlantic. A reduction in forward speed and a turn to the east or east-southeast is forecast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Martin should get larger and stronger tonight and Thursday when it transitions to large and powerful post-tropical cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually lose strength through the weekend, but remain very large.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
>>> Southwestern Atlantic:
A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Atlantic.
Some slow subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally northward to northwestward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent