By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)…located about 90 miles west-southwest of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico
Post-Tropical Cyclone 16L (Martin)…located about 885 miles east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland
Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)
LISA EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY
NHC Advisory number 18
The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Friday and Friday night, and the depression is forecast to become nearly stationary and meander on Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move over the Bay of Campeche early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday night and dissipate by Sunday night.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: The rainfall threat associated with Lisa is expected tocontinue to diminish. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible across portions of southeastern Mexico through tonight.
Post-Tropical Cyclone 16L (Martin)
POST-TROPICAL MARTIN CAUSING STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
NHC Advisory number 10
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 58 mph (93 km/h). A slower northward to north-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a much slower turn toward the east on Friday. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is then anticipated into the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Martin’s peak sustained winds will slowly decrease over the next few days, but it will continue to produce strong winds over a very large area well into the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by post-tropical Martin will likely spread across a large portion of the high-latitude North Atlantic basin, affecting portions of Atlantic Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic coast of Europe by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> East-southeast of Bermuda:
A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center.
Any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be
slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves little
through Friday and then turns westward over the weekend.
The system is forecast to merge with a larger low pressure area developing to its southwest by the end of the weekend, and further development is not anticipated once this occurs.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
>>> Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic.
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic.
The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent