Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)
Friday, November 4, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)…located about 235 miles west-northwest of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico

 

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Lisa)

LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SATURDAY

NHC Advisory number 21

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected tonight and early Saturday. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall or drift southward through the remainder of the weekend.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Saturday.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

None

>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic:

A broad area of showers and a few thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with an elongated, non-tropical area of low pressure. Any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves westward to west-northwestward.

The system is forecast to encounter stronger upper-level winds on Saturday and Saturday night, and further development is not anticipated beyond that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Southwestern Atlantic:

A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized.

However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent