By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone Karl…is located about 195 miles north-northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone Karl
KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE…EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
NHC advisory number 11
Karl is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of
southern Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some slight
weakening is possible on Friday before the center of Karl reaches the coast.
Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slow development during the next few days while the system moves westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
However, the disturbance is expected to move into a less favorable area of stronger upper-level winds on Sunday or Monday./span>
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent