Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, April 13, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 29S…is located approximately 265 NM north of Broome, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 29S

According to the JTWC Warning number 10, sustained winds are 40 knots, with gusts to 50 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 29S with a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) and void of any deep convection. A microwave image revealed the low-level cloud lines wrapping into the center with no associated convection. The system has continued to fail to organize likely attributed to the persistent mid-level shear disallowing vertical structuralization. As the system transitions from the diurnal minimum, convection could begin to build back over the system, allowing for more development.

Environmental analysis indicates that 29S remains in a marginally favorable environment characterized by moderate poleward and equatorward outflow, low (5-10 knot) deep layer shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. These parameters are offset by some slight dry air entrainment along the northern periphery of the system and the moderate (15-20 knot) mid-level shear.

TC 29S is forecast to track west-southwestward along the northern periphery of the str to the south through 24 hours. Near 24 hours, the str over western Australia is expected to propagate eastward and then an extension of ridging from the west will jut underneath the system and drive it more westward through 72 hours. Near 72 hours, an incoming long wave trough will break down the ridge and cause 29S to slow and begin a sharp turn toward the south to southeast.

Regarding intensity, 29S is forecast to marginally intensify over the next 24 hours due to the mid-level shear. After 24 hours, the shear is expected to weaken and allow 29S to further intensify. A peak of 90 knots is currently forecast to occur at 72 hours, though if hafs-a is right, it could be higher.after 72 hours, westerly shear and dry air entrainment will quickly rise due to the long wave trough interacting with the system. As a result, a rapid weakening trend will ensue through the remainder of the forecast period as the system is decapitated and sheared apart.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98P, which is located approximately 210 NM north of Port Vila

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) and a microwave image depicts flaring convection over a poorly-organized llcc with slight low-level banding to the south. Another pass reveals a consolidating circulation with 20 knot winds within the northern and southern peripheries, not yet completely wrapping into the center.

Environmental analysis indicates that 98S is in a favorable environment with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and strong poleward and equatorward outflow. The main limiting factor will be how much the broad circulation is able to consolidate.

The gfs shows a quick intensification trend, attaining gale-force winds in the eastern semicircle within 24 hours. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance agrees on a generally southward track over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.