Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, December 24, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Pabuk), is located approximately 242 east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeast Pacific Basin

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season was a below-average Pacific hurricane season. There were 15 tropical cyclones overall, of which all but 2 became named storms. Of the 13 named storms, 5 developed into hurricanes, of which 3 intensified into major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in this region of the Pacific Ocean. For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, with the first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, not forming until July 4. The final system of the season, Tropical Depression Fourteen‑E, dissipated on November 7.

Several storms impacted land this year. Hurricane Hone dropped very heavy rainfall over the Big Island of Hawaii after passing just offshore at Category 1 strength. The remnants of Hurricane Gilma impacted the islands several days later, though neither cyclone caused significant damage. Tropical Storm Ileana grazed the coast of northwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and one fatality. Hurricane John made landfall on southern Mexico twice after rapidly intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, causing 29 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damage. The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Kristy, which became the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane in a non-El Niño year since Celia in 2010.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Pabuk)

According to the the JTWC warning number 11, sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a highlyasymmetric system, with a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) moving back out from under the cirrus shield associated with deep convection along the coast of Vietnam. The llcc is extremely weak and only evident in high resolution shortwave infrared (swir) imagery, having deteriorated significantly during its time under the cirrus shield. A lack of recent scatterometer data precludes a full understanding of the wind field, but global and hurricane model fields suggest some possible gale-force winds may be embedded in the coastal trapped northerly surge flow to the west of the center. This is made all the more likely due to the deep convection that has persisted in that portion of the circulation for the past six hours. However, the remainder of the wind field is significantly weaker based on earlier scatterometer data and judging from the overall structural appearance of the system.

The environment continues to remain unfavorable, with moderate southeasterly shear, limited outflow aloft and marginal sea surface temperatures.

Tropical depression 28W (Pabuk) continues to trace an erratic motion over the past 12 hours, with the generally light steering influence of the str far to the east competing with the blocking effect of the northerly surge flow trapped along the coast of Vietnam. Global models are still showing that while the northerly surge flow will remain in place, it will rapidly weaken over the next 12-18 hours. At the same time, in the low- to mid-levels, the steering pattern shifts as a new anticyclone develops over Myanmar and moves quickly eastward, resulting in a deeper northeasterly steering layer.

TD 28W is thus expected to continue tracking towards the southwest along this moderately deep northeasterly steering vector, through the duration of the forecast period. Winds in the upper-levels however are coming straight out of the southeast and increasing in speed. An upstream outage has resulted in an atmospheric motion vector (amv) outage, and thus measured shear values, but model-derived soundings suggest shear is currently running at around 25 knots and these values are forecast to continue to increase over the next 12 to 24
hours.

A sliver of relatively dry mid-level air is also present to the southeast of the system and will be pushed in with the strong southeasterly flow, in effect smothering the system. With strong shear and dry air aloft, the system will not be able to recover and will quickly dissipate as it moves along the coast of Vietnam.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather that is being referred to as Invest 98S, which is located approximately 217 NM west-northwest of Cocos Island.

A himiwari-9 IR depicts a broad area of flaring convection with a weakly-defined llcc.

Upper-level analysis indicates 98S is in a favorable environment for development with low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear and good dual-channel divergence aloft, as well as warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 98S will continue to consolidate 99 NM southeast of cocos island, with development expected between 72-96 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.