Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, March 24, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 27S…is located approximately 408 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 27S

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared and shortwave infrared (swir) satellite imagery depicts a highly asymmetric system, with a wedge-shaped area of convection sheared to the west of the low level circulation center (llcc). A microwave image revealed a small llcc with shallow banding features exposed to the east, and deep convection beginning to wrap up the western portion of the circulation. Subsequent animated proxy visible imagery indicates this convection has failed to persist and the llcc has once again become exposed.

The environment is marginally favorable, with warm ssts, plenty of moisture and a strengthening poleward outflow channel. However, easterly shear remains moderate, which will serve to hinder rapid development.

TC 27S is forecast to continue to track west-southwestward over the next 36 hours along the northern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge (str) to the south. The system is expected to slow down after 24 hours as a passing trough far to the south will weaken the steering gradient. The track flattens out to a due west direction and the system picks up speed after 48 hours, as a new str moves in behind the trough and the
strengthens the steering gradient once again. By the end of the forecast period, the ridge slides to the southeast of TC 27S, which will result in a gradual turn poleward by 120 hours.

In terms of intensity, development is going to be slow for the first couple of days due to the highly tilted nature of the vortex due to the persistent moderate easterly shear. the highest winds will remain ensconced in the western half of the system, under the convective bursts. The rate of intensification is expected to increase after 48 hours, as most of the global models suggest a reduction in the deep-layer shear, which will allow the system to symmetrize and the vortex to become vertically aligned.

Peak intensity of 75 knots is expected to be reached around 96 hours. A generalized weakening is likely to begin after 96 hours as dry air intrusion and cooling ssts will offset the relatively low shear and decent poleward outflow.