Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, March 25, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)…is located approximately 565 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)

According to the JTWC warning number 7, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to near 70 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 27S with a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) and deep convective bursts along the western sector of the llcc. Moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to act on the system, causing the vortex to tilt westward with height. A microwave image shows a very strong burst of convection near the center with the exposed low-level cloud lines within the eastern semicircle.

Environmental analysis indicates that 27S is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by moderate poleward and equatorward outflow, moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 27S is forecast to continue tracking westward, along the northern periphery of the str, through 36 hours. Near 36 hours, a longwave trough is expected to break down the str, but a second str will follow and build to the south of the system. This will allow 27S to track further westward rather than beginning a poleward turn. The system will then eventually round the northwestern periphery of the second str near 120 hours.

Regarding intensity, TC 27S is forecast to slightly intensify over the next 24 hours due to the shear dropping to around 10-15 knots. The system will then maintain intensity through 48 hours. Near 48 hours, shear is expected to drop further, below 10 knots, allowing for the system to intensify to around 65 knots at 96 hours. After 96 hours, dry air and cooling sea surface temperatures are forecast to halt
further intensification as the system begins to track more poleward.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 139 NM north-northwest of Broome, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave pass depict poorly organized area of convection over an obscured low level circulation center (llcc). An ascat pass revealed a small region of 15-20 knot winds in the southeastern quadrant of the llcc.

Environmental analysis depicts favorable conditions for further development due to low (10-15 knots) vertical wind shear, very warm ssts, and strong equatorward outflow.

Deterministic models are in good agreement of further intensification of 93S over the next 48 hours as it deepens northwest of Broome.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.