Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, March 30, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)…is located approximately 813 NM southwest of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)

According to the JTWC warning number 17, sustained winds were 70 knots with gusts to near 85 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 27S (Courtney) with a filled eye and rapidly weakening convection over the defined low-level circulation center (llcc). The convection is now also becoming displaced slightly to the south of the llcc as the system weakens. Dry air can be seen beginning to entrain into the system along the northern periphery.

As well, the microwave image reveals a stationary banding feature (sbc) wrapping in from the north along the eastern side and connecting with the eyewall in the southwestern quadrant. The presence of the sbc is a sign of an eyewall replacement cycle (erc) kicking off within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Environmental analysis indicates that 27S is in a marginal environment that will only worsen in the next couple days. Current environmental parameters include strong poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and dry air to the north.

TC 27S is forecast to track generally southward through 48 hours as it continues to round the str to the east. After 48 hours, the vortex will become very shallow and is then expected to turn westward, as the steering mechanism transitions to a low-level ridge that will be positioned to the south.

Regarding intensity, 27S is forecast to rapidly weaken over the next 36 hours to an intensity of around 45 knots as the system enters cooler
waters, shear raises to above 40 knots, and dry air decapitates the vortex.

After 36 hours, poleward outflow will greatly increase due to the position of the vortex relative to the jet, which will allow for a more gradual weakening through 72 hours, where the system is forecast to drop below 35 knots. Subtropical transition is also likely to complete near the same time as dissipation and the system begins to interact with the jet and the vortex becomes very shallow.