Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, March 31, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)…is located approximately 885 NM south-southwest of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)

According to the JTWC warning number 19, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to near 70 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 27S with convection that is being heavily sheared to the southeast, revealing the partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). An ascat image showed an elongating wind field with 55 knot barbs within the southwestern periphery, evidence that the system is still near typhoon strength.

Environmental analysis indicates that 27S is in a highly unfavorable environment characterized by high (30-35 knot) vertical wind shear, significant dry air entrainment, and borderline sea surface temperatures. These factors are only offset by the strong poleward outflow, as the system approaches the jet.

TC 27S is forecast to track further southward, along the southwestern periphery of the str through 24 hours. After 24 hours, the vortex will become very shallow and the steering mechanism will transition to a low-level ridge positioned to the south of the system. This will cause 27S to turn sharply westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Subtropical transition is now forecast to be complete before dissipation can occur. The transition is currently forecast to complete no later than 48 hours, but likely earlier as shear is expected to rise to over 50 knots within the next 12 hours.

Regarding intensity of 27S, further weakening the forecast due to rising shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and increasing dry air entrainment. An intensity of around 35-40 knots is anticipated around the time subtropical transition completes.