Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, March 26, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)…is located approximately 438 NM southeast of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)

According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds were 70 knots with gusts to near 85 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 27S (Courtney) with persistent deep convection obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc). Outflow has notably increased over the past 6 hours, with strong radial outflow now present. A microwave image revealed the convective banding tightly wrapping into the center. The corresponding microwave images do show that a well-defined microwave eye has yet to form though.

Environmental analysis indicates that 27S is in a favorable environment characterized by strong radial outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 27S is forecast to continue tracking westward through 48 hours. An incoming longwave trough will begin breaking down the current steering ridge within the next 12 hours, but a second str will follow and build to the south of the system, allowing for the further westward track. Near 72 hours, 27S will start to round the northwestern periphery of the second str and will begin its poleward turn.

Regarding intensity, 27S is forecast to continue intensifying through 72 hours to a peak of around 90 knots.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable, with low shear, ample moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures. After 72 hours, sea surface temperatures will begin to cool and shear is expected to increase, causing weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 252 NM north of Broome, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a poorly organized area of flaring convection over a very weakly defined low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis depicts favorable conditions for due to low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, and a moderate equatorward outflow channel aloft.

The ecmwf ensemble is currently the most aggressive with global deterministic and ensemble models in good agreement on a generally southward track towards the coast of Australia over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.