Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, March 27, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)…is located approximately 286 NM south-southeast of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 28S…is located approximately 242 NM north-northeast of Broome, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 27S (Courtney)

According to the JTWC warning number 11, sustained winds were 85 knots with gusts to near 105 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depict a compact, slightly asymmetric convective mass, with embedded overshooting tops with low cloud top temperatures. Animated water vapor imagery shows a diffuse upshear edge of the cloud mass, suggestive of a localized reduction in the otherwise moderate easterly shear. An arc of cirrus marks the eastward extent of the upper-level outflow, with some relatively drier air to the west of the arc, an indicator of a potential period of additional, potentially rapid, intensification within the next 12 to 24 hours.

The environment continues to be favorable for additional intensification, and there are some initial signals of a possibility of rapid intensification (ri).

TC 27S is forecast to continue tracking westward for the next 12 to 24 hours, along the northern side of a str currently centered to the south and southwest of the tc. The str quickly slides eastward and will be positioned to the southeast of TC 27S by 36 hours, allowing the system to slowly arc onto a more southwestward track through 72 hours. The approach of a deep upper-level trough from the west, will erode and push the str to the east, allowing TC 27S to round the ridge axis and turn southward after 72 hours. Another ridge quickly moves in from the west after passage of the trough, and TC 27S will slow down dramatically by the end of the forecast period as it runs into the strong ridging to the south.

In terms of intensity, as outlined above, there are signals emerging in the water vapor imagery of the environment setting up for a period of further intensification in the near term. This is borne out by the hafs-a model which shows onset of ri by 12 hours, quickly reaching a peak of 115 knots. The remainder of the available guidance however does not support ri but does show modest additional intensification.

There is plenty of available moisture and ssts remain moderately warm. around 48 hours, the system will also begin to tap into a stronger poleward outflow channel, which should fuel additional intensification through at least that point and potentially as late as 72 hours . However, by 72 hours, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase sharply and dry mid-level air will begin to intrude into the core of the system, marking the onset of a steady weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast.

Tropical Cyclone 28S

According to the JTWC warning number 1, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots