Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, March 19, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 26S…is located approximately 132 NM west-southwest of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 26S

According to the JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to near 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed, tight low level circulation center (llcc) lurking under convective debris. A burst of convection developed just west of the vortex center and the llcc briefly tucked up under this small convective mass. However, by the convection has dissipated, leaving the llcc once again exposed and highly tilted westward with height.

Cimss vws estimates are currently showing easterly shear of about 25-30 knots or even slightly higher, which is consistent with the satellite presentation and the inability of the system to maintain persistent convection in and around the inner core of the vortex.

The environment is marginal at best, with warm ssts and strong westward outflow offset
by the high vws and relatively dry air to the north and east of the system.

TC 26S remains trapped between a belt of low-to mid-level northwesterlies to the north and a deep-layer str to the south. Over the past 12 hours or so, the str has been the dominate influence, and after a brief southeastward excursion, TC 26S has tracked for the most part towards the southwest since this morning. Over the next 12 hours or so, the str is expected to weaken and shift eastward, which will allow the influence of the westerlies to the north to increase, and turn TV 26S towards the southeast through tau 72.

A combination of weakening monsoon westerlies to the north and a restrengthening str to the south will generate a weak steering pattern and the system is expected to slow significantly, generally becoming quasi-stationary after 72 hours.

In terms of intensity, the recent bursts of convective activity have provided the impetus to continue spinning up the low-level wind field and it is assumed the system has maintained 45 knot intensity, as measured by an earlier pass. However, the system remains highly tilted and it will be difficult for the system to overcome the persistent, strong, easterly shear and achieve
symmetrization. The wind field however will not weaken significantly in the short-term, and the forecast calls for a steady state intensity through 24 hours.

Thereafter, while shear is expected to weaken slightly, large-scale subsidence and significant drying of the airmass along the northern side of the circulation will begin to impact the system. The dry air will be ingested into the inner core of the system after 24 hours, resulting in a slow but steady weakening trend through 48 hours.

Some modest moistening and decrease in shear is expected after 48 hours, though by that time, having spent a significant amount of time over relatively the same area, cool water upwelling will offset the otherwise more favorable environmental conditions. The tug of war between these competing influences means the system will likely maintain minimal tropical
storm strength through the end of the forecast period, though it is possible it could weaken below warning threshold prior to 120 hours.