Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, March 20, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 26S…is located approximately 137 NM south-southwest of Cocos Islands – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 26S – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts fragmented and shallow convective banding wrapping into an exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) of the tropical cyclone 26S. Recent change in the steering pattern and storm movement left the llcc fully exposed and tracking east-southeastward, while the deep convection is displaced to the west, due to strong (25-30 knot) easterly vertical wind shear (vws).

Environmental analysis reveals marginal environment characterized by aforementioned strong (25-30 knot) vws, weak equatorward outflow, warm sea surface temperatures (sst), as well as slightly increasing moisture content across the vertical extent.

TC 26S is forecast to track southeastward under the influence of the low-level monsoon flow. Potentially developing mid-level convection will also be steered in the same direction by the ner to the northeast. Given the marginal environment however, any significant development is unlikely and the system is forecast to maintain intensity of 35-40 knots over the next 96 hours,
followed by a dissipation by the end of the forecast period.

Significant uncertainty remains in place in regard to the track, as past 36 hours, the system is forecast to make a northeastward turn, driven by the weakening of the monsoon surge, as well as the ner to the northeast moving westward. At that point, TC 26S will remain in a weak steering environment, with the possibility of erratic motion. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to make another turn toward southeast, as the monsoon surge strengthens again.

Available intensity aids indicate dissipation beginning at 96 hours and completing by the end of
the forecast period. There is however potential that TC 26S will interact with another system developing off the northwestern coast of Australia at the beginning of next week.