Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, March 15, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 25S (Jude) is located approximately 400 NM south-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 25S (Jude)

According to the JTWC warning number 09, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to 70 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 25S (Jude) transiting over southern portion of Madagascar. The vertical wind shear (vws) remains over 40 knots from the northwest, resulting in all associated deep convection being contained within the southern semicircle of the circulation.

This assessment is consistent with the analysis of the multi-model (gfs, ecmwf, ukmet) pressure fields and local surface observations. As a longwave trough approaches to the south of the system, strong poleward outflow remains in place.

TC 25S is forecast to continue tracking east-southeastward and re-emerge over southern Indian Ocean water within the next 6-12 hours. The system will remain under the primary influence of a deep-layer str to the northeast. Simultaneously, a longwave trough axis will approach the system as soon as 12 hours, initiating a subtropical transition (stt).

TC Jude is forecast to maintain intensity through 24 hours, assisted by an injection of warm water and strong poleward outflow, offset by an increasing vws. By 36 hours the system is forecast to become fully subtropical and slowly weaken to 45 knots, due to rapidly cooling sea surface temperatures, dry air entrainment from the west and further
increasing vws.