Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, March 9, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone) is located approximately 876 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 25S (Jude) is located approximately 34 NM east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Tropical cyclone 24S has become better organized over the past 12 hours as indicated in animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi), which reveals deep convective banding wrapping around a partially-exposed, defined low-level circulation center (llcc). An ascat-b image shows a broad circulation center with gale-force winds (35-40 knots) primarily over the eastern and southern semicircles wrapping into the western quadrant, with significantly weaker winds over the northern quadrant. A microwave image depicts a deep convective band over the southern semicircle associated with the convergent gale-force winds.

With the exception of dry air entrainment into the northern quadrant of the system, environmental conditions have improved, with robust poleward outflow and low vertical wind shear (vws).

Tropical cyclone 24S is forecast to track south-southwestward through 24 hours along the northwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge (str). The system should steadily intensify to a peak intensity of 50 knots by 12 hours due to the robust poleward outflow into a subtropical jet to the south and southeast, warm sst values, and low to moderate (5-20 knots) vws. After 24 hours, TC 24S will track westward through 72 hours along the northern periphery of a secondary str expected to build to the south.

Significant weakening is anticipated as the subtropical jet to the southeast weakens and shifts east, with increasing northwesterly upper-level flow and high (25-35 knots) vws over the system. After 72 hours, the system will begin to recurve southwestward, with dissipation forecast by 120 hours as extensive dry air envelops the system.

Tropical Cyclone 25S (Jude)

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds were 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a rapidly consolidating system, with tightly-curved banding (tcb) wrapping into a defined low-level circulation center (llcc). A 91ghz color composite microwave image also depicts tcb wrapping into a microwave
eye feature, which typically indicates a 50-55 knot system.

With the exception of the weak outflow over the southern periphery, outflow is robust, with low vertical wind shear and warm sst values.

Tropical cyclone 25S is forecast to maintain a westward track through 36 hours along the northern periphery of the str, with landfall expected near 18 hours. The system will continue to intensify to a peak intensity of 80 knots near landfall under highly favorable environmental conditions to include very warm sst values and strong equatorward outflow.

After landfall, the system will track inland, weaken, and recurve southward by 72 hours as the str reorients to the east in response to an approaching major shortwave trough. Steady weakening will occur over land. However, the system is forecast to reemerge over the Mozambique Channel near 96 hours, with re-intensification to 55 knots by 120 hours as the system accelerates southeastward.