Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, March 11, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone) is located approximately 806 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone)

According to the JTWC warning number 8, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a slightly elongated low-level circulation center (llcc) of tropical cyclone 24S  (Ivone). Strong (30+ knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear (vws) is causing the deep convection to tilt toward the southeast quadrant
of the system.

Dry air originating over the northwestern semicircle is mixing into the stratocumulus cloud layer, deteriorating the core of the TC. Poleward outflow remains strong, with the tail end of the jet to the south.

TC 24S is forecast to continue tracking westward, under the influence of the steering str to the south. As the ridge builds and moves eastward, the system is expected to follow its western periphery and begin turning southwestward around 24 hours. The system will then round the axis of the str by 72 hours and become positioned underneath the upper-level westerlies. After that, TC 24S will turn southeastward and is forecast to dissipate by 96 hours, just ahead of an upper level jet maximum.

TC Ivone is forecast to maintain intensity over the next 48 hours under the impacts of marginal environmental conditions. Sea surface temperatures (sst) will remain warm, offset by the weakening upper-level outflow, strong vws and continuous dry air entrainment. After 48 hours, TC 24S will enter an area of weaker vws, offset however by cooling sst, leading to slight weakening of the system. After 72 hours, the vws will start to increase again, which combined with sst dropping will lead to the dissipation of  24S, as it also approaches the baroclinic zone to the south.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Remnants of 25S, which is located approximately 139 NM north of Beira, Mozambique

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts fragmented convective banding. Another image depicts flaring convection in the southwest periphery of the circulation, as well as formative banding in the eastern portion of the circulation.

Development is not expected in the near-term because the circulation is currently over land. However, atmospheric conditions are expected to be generally favorable as the system nears the Mozambique Channel over the next 24 hours, with low to moderate vertical wind shear (10-15 knots) and strong vertical outflow aloft.

Global deterministic models as well as ensemble members are all in agreement that 25S will remain well consolidated and track over warm sea surface temperatures within the Mozambique Channel between 24 and 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.