Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, March 13, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone) is located approximately 568 NM east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 25S (Jude) is located approximately 77 NM north-northwest of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone)

According to the JTWC warning number 12, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

As revealed in animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi), the low-level circulation center (llcc) remains fully exposed, with low-level cloud lines wrapping around a broad center and disorganized deep convection sheared to the east and southeast due to high
westerly vertical wind shear (vws). A microwave image depicts a weakly defined llcc, with deep convection displaced well to the east and south. Another image shows a highly asymmetric wind field, with an elongated circulation center surrounded by 10-20 knot winds over the northern semicircle and gradient-enhanced gale force winds displaced 130 NM to the south.

With the exception of the moderate poleward outflow, environmental conditions are steadily degrading, with extensive dry air over the system.

TC 24S is forecast to track generally southward (south-southwestward to south-southeastward) through 36 hours along the western periphery of the deep-layer str to the east. After 36 hours, the system will recurve and accelerate southeastward as the str reorients with the approach of a mid-latitude major shortwave trough.

TC 24S will maintain intensity through 12 hours but is expected to intensify slightly from 12 to 24 hours, with a consolidating wind field, due to enhanced poleward outflow into the jet to the south. Modest re-moistening of the core will occur but is expected t0 be short-lived as dry air will overwhelm the system after 24 hours leading to steady weakening through 48 hours.

The system will also begin extratropical transition (ett) by 36 hours as it interacts with the major shortwave trough. The system is expected to complete ett by 48 hours as it tracks under the jet, with strong (40-45 knots) vws and cold sst values, and embeds into the frontal zone. TC 24S could also dissipate prior to completing ett.

Tropical Cyclone 25S (Jude)

According to the JTWC warning number 06, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a rapidly consolidating low-level circulation (llc), with formative banding and a large cluster of deep convection over the eastern semicircle. Visible imagery shows a partially-exposed, tightly-wrapped low-level circulation center positioned on the northwestern edge of the deep convective cluster. Microwave imagery has been sparse, however, an image showed the bulk of the deep convection confined to the southern semicircle, fragmented banding over the
western quadrant, and no defined llcc.

Environmental conditions are favorable, with radial outflow, low vertical wind shear (vws) and warm sst values.

Tropical cyclone 25S will track east-southeastward to eastward along the southern periphery of the str through 72 hours. Environmental conditions appear favorable for the next 24 hours. Thus, TC 25S should intensify to a peak intensity of 50 knots by 24 hours. After 24 hours, the system will weaken as it tracks under an approaching subtropical major shortwave trough, which will introduce increasing vws (20-35 knots) and convergence aloft before the system makes landfall over southwest Madagascar near 36 hours.