Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, March 12, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone) is located approximately 771 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Ivone)

According to the JTWC warning number 10, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a nearly fully exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) associated with tropical cyclone 24S (Ivone). convection over the llcc is shallow and fragmented, while a broader area of consistent deep convection is displaced to the southeast, within an area of convergent flow and higher humidity.

The environmental analysis reveals warm sea surface temperatures (sst), offset by a weakening outflow, dry air neary fully surrounding the llcc and strong (30+ knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear (vws).

TC 24S is currently transiting westward, just prior to turning west-southwestward. the system is forecast to travel along the western periphery of a str to the south and the steering pattern will remain in place throughout the forecast period. As the system approaches the axis of the ridge, it will transit over rapidly cooling sst, which will contribute to the weakening trend throughout 96 hours.

Concurrently by 72 hours, TC 24S will approach the baroclinic zone and with rapidly increasing vws will begin its extratropical transition (ett). By 96 hours, TC 24S will become an extratropical low, while being located directly underneath an upper-level jet.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Remnants of 25S, which is located approximately 117 NM northeast of Beira, Mozambique

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts the remnants of 25S as a quickly regenerating circulation with disorganized convection over the center and banding beginning to consolidate around the llcc.

While the system is currently over land, the atmospheric conditions are still very favorable moving forward, as the system transits southeast towards the Mozambique Channel over the next 12 hours. Low vertical wind shear (<15 knots), very strong dual channel outflow aloft, and a very humid layer coupled with the Zambezi River beneath are all greatly supporting the regeneration potential.

Global deterministic models and ensemble models are in good agreement that 25S will be completely over the warm sea surface temperatures of the Mozambique Channel between 12 and 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.