Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, February 22, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P is located approximately 388 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 19P is located approximately 285 NM west-southwest of Avata Samoa

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P

According to the JTWC warning number 4A, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts collapsing convection over a partially obscured low-level circulation center (llcc). Water vapor imagery reveals strong
poleward and eastward outflow in a divergent upper-level environment.

Tropical cyclone 18P will remain in a competing steering environment trapped between two ridges for the first 48 hours of the forecast. After 48 hours, the near equatorial ridge to the northeast will drive the system southeastward, then southward through the end of the forecast period.

The system will intensify in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, strong upper level divergence, and warm sea surface temperatures for the first 72 hours of the forecast. Afterwards, vertical wind shear will become unfavorably high and result in weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.

Tropical Cyclone 19P

According to the JTWC warning number 2A, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 640 NM east-southeast of Tonga

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a 230247z 89 ghz amsr2 microwave image depict a broad area of dense, persistent convection with fragmented formative bands beginning to organize. The quick consolidation, which is very typical of storms situated in the south pacific convergence zone, is evident on recent water vapor animation.

The environment is favorable for development with conducive warm sea surface temperature values and low to moderate (10-15 kts) vertical wind shear and good radial outflow aloft.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 96P will continue to track east-
southeasterly as it intensifies over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 517 NM east-southeast of Tonga

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and 230246z ssmis 91ghz microwave image depict a broad area of rotation with a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with flaring convection isolated to the southern periphery of the circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 92P is currently in a marginally unfavorable environment with cool sea surface temperatures, moderate (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, and moderate outflow aloft. As this system continues to track to the southeast it will enter in an area of increased wind shear in excess of 30-40 knots and strong westerlies aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that 92P will continue to track southeastward as a
subtropical low. JTWC will continue to closely monitor Invest 92P for signs of tropical transition.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 476 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satelliteimagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center (llcc), and a gmi 89ghz microwave image also depicts deep convective curved banding to the north of the llcc, though the llcc remains displaced a bit to the east of the deep convective mass. A 221358z ascat-c scatterometery pass reveals 25-30 knot winds wrapping into the llcc, with north to southeasterly 20-25 knot wind fields to the east and south of the llcc and confirms the fact that the llcc is not vertically aligned with the convection.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 99S is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, and good outflow aloft.

Global models are not in good agreement with the potential development of 99S. GFS is the primary model showing quick consolidation over the next 24-36 hours. However, the gfs and ecmwf ensembles are in good agreement in the general south-southwestward track over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.