Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, March 3, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 320 NM east of Brisbane, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 556 NM southeast of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 22, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to 70 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low-level circulation (llcc) of tropical cyclone Alfred (18P) with majority of the deep convection contained within the southern semicircle.

Analysis reveals marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures (sst), strong poleward outflow, offset by significant dry air intrusion present throughout the northern semicircle of the system.

TC 18P is forecast to track southeastward for the next 12 hours, along the southwestern periphery of the str to the east. Afterwards, the steering pattern will shift, as the str to the east moves north, while an extension of another str originating over Australia assumes the primary steering. By 24 hours, the str to the south will cause TC Alfred to sharply turn westward.

As the system starts tracking towards the coast of Australia, the str will reorient from northwest-southeast, to a southwest-northeast axis. This change in the steering will lead to TC 18P taking a slight west-northwestward turn, followed by a west-southwestward turn just before landfall and eventual dissipation.

In regard to the intensity forecast, TC 18P is expected to slightly intensify, while making the sharp westward turn, utilizing the injection of moist air from the south and southeast. Afterwards the system is expected to begin weakening as it transits towards Australia and the environmental conditions become less favorable, with cooling sst, increasing wind shear, increasing dry air and reduced outflow aloft.  Landfall is expected shortly after 72 hours, just north of Brisbane.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 13, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a nearly fully exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) of the tropical cyclone 23S (Honde), with majority of the deep convection being sheared off to the southeast. The system is struggling with producing persistent and widespread convection due to strong dry air entrainment originating from the air mass to the west. on the other hand, poleward outflow remains strong and supportive, together with warm sea surface temperatures (sst). The system is very slowly beginning to transit southeastward after a period of significant translation speed slow down.

TC 23S is forecast to begin accelerating south-southeastward under the primary influence of the str to the east throughout the forecast period. By 48 hours, the system will approach the tail end of the upper-level jet and begin to interact with the baroclinic zone. By 72 hours it is forecast to complete the extratropical transition, while making an eastward turn ahead of a longwave trough and another upper-level jet maxima.

TC Honde is forecast to maintain intensity throughout its tropical cyclone phase, and start weakening as soon as it begins the extratropical transition. Due to cooling sst, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air eroding the structure of the system, TC 23S is forecast to weaken down to 40 knots, as it becomes a cold-core low.