Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, March 6, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 80 NM east of Brisbane, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 28, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Tropical cyclone 18P is located under a subtropical jet and within a marginal environment characterized by strong (45-55 knots) vertical wind shear (vws), marginal sst values, and extensive dry air through the mid- and upper-levels of the system.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a nearly fully exposed low-level circulation with flaring convection contained within the southern semicircle of tropical cyclone 18P (Alfred). The system is moving very slowly towards the Australia coastline.

Environmental conditions are generally unfavorable for intensification, with vertical wind shear (vws) remaining high (30-35 knots), cool sea surface temperatures (sst), dry air entrainment and weak poleward outflow.

TC Alfred is currently assessed as a tropical system with structural features characteristic of both tropical and mid-latitude cyclones. Phase classification plots indicate a deep warm core, but the system remains structurally asymmetric, with its llcc located to the south of the subtropical jet.

TC 18P is forecast to track west-southwestward over the next 12 hours. As the str to the south builds and extends further offshore, it will steer the system west-northwestward, towards Moreton Island. Landfall is expected north of Brisbane, between 24 and 36 hours.

Slow translation speed, cooling down sst due to upwelling, weak poleward outflow and strong vws will lead to TC 18P beginning to weaken just prior to landfall, reaching 45 knots by 24 hours and dissipating by the end of the forecast period.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98S, which is located approximately 472 NM west-northwest of Coco Islands

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a broad area of cyclonic rotation with convection building over a slightly elongated llcc. A ascat metop-b pass further highlights the broad nature of 98S with weak overall winds wrapping into the center.

Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable with the system sitting under strong
vertical wind shear in excess of 50 knots, and very weak poleward outflow this is offset by warm sea surface temperatures.

Despite the current environmental conditions, global models are extremely favorable and consistent of the development of 98S over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 505 NM north of La Reunion

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a broad area of cyclonic rotation with deep convection building over the center.

Environmental conditions are currently marginally favorable with moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, decent poleward outflow aloft, relatively warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models and ensembles are in good agreement the 99S will continue to consolidate and develop over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.