Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, March 4, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 181 NM east of Brisbane, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 699 NM southeast of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 24, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to 70 knots

Tropical cyclone 18P is located under a subtropical jet and within a marginal environment characterized by strong (45-55 knots) vertical wind shear (vws), marginal sst values, and extensive dry air through the mid- and upper-levels of the system.

The system has hybrid characteristics, with moderate baroclinicity, and a highly asymmetric wind field. A ascat-b image reveals extensive gale-force winds over the southern semicircle, with a small patch of 50 knot winds.

Due to the strong vws and presence of significant dry air, animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts an exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center (llcc), with flaring disorganized deep convection over the southern quadrant. A fortuitous altimeter pass indicates significant wave heights of 26-27 feet just to the west of the center.

TC 18P has slowed and turned sharply westward over the past 12 hours under the steering influence of the dominant steering ridge to the south. Track speeds are expected to remain climatologically slow due to the competing near-equatorial ridge to the north. TC 18P will track generally westward, with landfall anticipated near Brisbane at around 48 hours.

The intensity should maintain at 55 knots through 48 hours, with some potential for slight intensification in the 36 to 48 hour period as the core moistens and vws relaxes to about 25-30 knots. Additionally, as the system approaches the Gold Coast, sst values will increase slightly to. Due to the slow track motion, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall over the coastal region of Australia. After 48 hours, the system will track inland and gradually dissipate by 72 hours.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 15, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation (llc), with fragmented, flaring convection obscuring the llc. MSI also reveals an extensive region of stratocumulus advecting equatorward over the western periphery of the
system associated with cooler, drier air. Despite the ragged core structure evident in msi, A color microwave image reveals shallow banding wrapping tightly into a well-defined low-level circulation center

TC 23S will track southward to south-southeastward through 48 hours along the southwestern periphery of a north-south oriented str. Slight intensification is anticipated over the next 12 to 24 hours due to the vigorous poleward outflow into the jet to the south and marginal sst values.

However, TC 23S will weaken steadily after 24 hours as it tracks under strong westerlies, with increasing (35-40 knots) vertical wind shear, cooling sst, and dry air entrainment. The system will quickly transition into an extra-tropical low by 48 hours as it tracks under the jet core and gains frontal characteristics.