Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, March 1, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 322 NM north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance) is located approximately 630 NM south of St. Denis, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 420 NM southeast of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 17, sustained winds were 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) shows a rather large system in the coral sea with a recently obscured ragged eye over the central dense overcast with overshooting cold cloud tops
height reaching -79 celsius.

Analysis indicates that vertical wind shear reached high values (20-25kts), offsetting the warm along-track sst, influx of moisture, and strong poleward outflow (as indicated by long cirrus streaks streaming poleward in the eir loop). The effect or key outcome is a marginal environment. TC Alfred is tracking on the outer west rim of the subtropical ridge to the east and it is also under the influence of the str to the west. This is resulting in the slower and zig-zag storm motion.

TC Alfred will track southwestward, southeastward, then after 72 hours, westward as the two competing strs continue to compete resulting in a more pronounced zig-zag storm motion. As the system moves poleward, the environment will become unfavorable mostly due to increasing vws, resulting in a gradual weakening down to 65kts by 96 hours as the TC beelines toward Australia just north of Brisbane.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance)

According to the JTWC warning number 10, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts fully exposed low-level circulation (llcc) associated with tropical cyclone 22S (Garance). Moderate to strong vertical wind shear (vws) is removing any flaring convection and acts against the sustainment or further development of the system. Additionally, low-level dry air is wrapping into the core from the west and southwest.

Tropical cyclone 22S is forecast to continue tracking along the southwestern periphery of the str to the east. The system is rapidly approaching cool water to the south. Southerly vertical wind shear (vws) will shift to an even stronger westerly flow, further eroding the system, which is expected to reach 45 kts by 24 hours.

At the same time the system will become fully extratropical at the end of the current forecast period and will become embedded in the flow within the baroclinic zone.

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

TC hHonde is forecast to continue its very slow motion for at least 48 hours, as it sits between a deep-layer str
over Africa and a building str to the east. By 48 hours, the system is expected to shift from a southeastward track to a more southward movement, as the ridge to the east becomes stronger. Around 72 hours the system will begin its extratropical transition (ett), as it interacts with the baroclinic zone, and is expected to become a
strong, baroclinic low by the end of the forecast period.

In terms of intensity, the system will weaken steadily, but very slowly, as the weak vertical wind shear (vws) and strong poleward outflow will offset the more unfavorable conditions. The slow storm movement and associated upwelling will lead to progressively cooling sea surface temperatures (sst), while continuous intrusion of dry air from the west will further erode the core of the system.