Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, March 2, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 250 NM east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 448 NM southeast of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 20, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 18P (Alfred) as it is transiting along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge (str) to the east. The deep convection is pushed away from the nearly fully exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) by the moderately strong (20-25 knots) northwesterly vertical wind shear (vws).

Analysis reveals marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures (sst), strong poleward outflow, offset by significant dry air intrusion present throughout the northern semicircle of the system.

TC Alfred is forecast to track southeastward along the southwestern periphery of the str through 36 hours, with
intensity oscillating between 50 and 55 knots. Around 48 hours, the environment will significantly change, with the steering ridge to the east pushing further north and elongating. At the same time, an extension of another ridge over Australia will assume steering for TC Alfred, changing the movement direction of the cyclone to westward.

By 48 hours, the system will also lose its main outflow mechanism as the jet maxima previously located to the south shifts eastward. With TC 18P now south of the 26S latitude, the sea surface temperatures will drop, while the vws increases to 25+ knots. As a result, the system will begin to weaken as it transits toward the coast of Australia. The system is forecast to make landfall just north of Brisbane and dissipate by 120 hours.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 11, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a currently quasi-stationary tropical cyclone 23S (Honde) showing signs of minor intensification over the last 6 hours. As the system continued to slow down, its spiral banding structure consolidated, forming a tight convective canopy.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures (sst), strong poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, offset only by the presence of dry air along western, northern and eastern peripheries of the system.

As TC 23S is embedded within a competing steering environment, it is forecast to slowly, and somewhat erratically, transit eastward over the next 12-24 hours. Afterwards, the str to the east will assume primary steering, guiding TC Honde southward. The system speed over water will significantly increase as it rounds the southwestward periphery of the str. Simultaneously, by 72 hours, TC 23S is forecast to begin interacting with the baroclinic zone, transitioning to an extratropical system by 96 hours.

As the system transits south, dry air intrusion will remain the main unfavorable component of the environment, causing a steady, but slow weakening. As the system completes the extratropical transition by 96 hours, it is forecast to further weaken down to 45 knots.