Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 28, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 457 NM north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance) is located approximately 217 NM south of St. Denis, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 210 NM south-southeast of Toliara, Madagascar

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 16, sustained winds were 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a ragged eye feature struggling against strong vertical wind shear of 15-20kts from the northeast. dry air is entraining into the circulation from the northwest. Water vapor imagery reveals strong poleward outflow, but also upper-level northerlies which is minimizing divergence in the upper-level environment.

TC Alfred will track southward during the remainder of the forecast period, curving to the southeast after 72 hours. The steering environment will remain complicated and competing between two deep-layer ridges. The ridge to the east will drive the system southward while the ridge located over Australia slows the track speed, potentially causing irregular track motion. After 48 hours, a deep-layer trough will break down the ridge over east Australia, allowing for the track speed to increase southeastward. After the ridge passes at the end of the forecast period, the Australian ridge rebuilds and slows track motion once again.

The forecast warning captures a nearly quasi-station track between 96-120 hours, but the possibility lies that as the deep-layer trough moves westward and erodes the eastern ner the system may double-back northwestward under the steering influence of the Australian ridge. The TC will rapidly weaken while in an environment with unfavorably high vertical wind shear, marginal divergence aloft, and significant upwelling in the early-term forecast. as the system moves southward approaching an upper-level trough between 48-96 hours, the upper-level environment and vertical wind shear will become increasingly unfavorable and continue weakening to 55kts by the end of the forecast period.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance)

According to the JTWC warning number 8, sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 22S making landfall on the northwestern shore of La Reunion, with topographic interference causing the system to become slightly disorganized and lose the ragged eye feature to fill. However, the core circulation on the low-levels appears to be resilient despite the land interaction as depicted on radar imagery.

Tropical cyclone 22S will continue to be driven southward by a subtropical ridge to the east. Between 36-48 hours, the system will have passed the ridge axis and curve in a southeastward direction. The system will struggle to redevelop after fully tracking over La Reunion due to high vertical wind shear and dry air impingement from the east into the circulation.

The system will continue to slowly weaken as the system approached the baroclinic zone at 36 hours, causing the system to commence extratropical transition. TC 22S will have completed extratropical transition becoming frontal and weakening to 50kts by the end of the forecast period.

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 7, sustained winds were 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad circulation with deep convective banding and a vibrant southern outflow channel into the subtropical jet to the south. Dry air bounds the western periphery of the system and wraps around the northern periphery of the system.

Tropical cyclone 23S will remain in a competing steering environment between two ridges, resulting in a slow and nearly quasi-stationary motion for the first 72 hours of the forecast period. The track speed will increase as the subtropical ridge to the west weakens and the system moves farther south under the influence of the eastern ridge.

The system will gradually weaken over the course of the forecast as the slow motion causes upwelling. Other favorable environmental features, such as low vertical wind shear and upper-level divergence, will counter the unfavorable upwelling allowing for a slower rate of weakening.