Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, February 27, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 528 NM north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance) is located approximately 90 NM north of St. Denis, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 216 NM south-southeast of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 14, sustained winds were 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts improving convective organization around a precursor eye feature.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low vws, and moderate poleward outflow offset by the localized cool sst.

TC Alfred will continue tracking generally poleward through the entirety of the forecast period under the ongoing steering influence of the str to the east. A slight westward jog is possible after 36 hours as a subtropical ridge builds to the southwest and nudges the system, but the influence of this ridging will likely be muted.

While the current forecast calls for a generally steady intensity trend over the next 12 to 24 hours, additional intensification is possible as vertical wind shear remains low and poleward outflow robust. However, vertical wind shear is expected to increase as upper-level flow around the periphery of the subtropical ridge to the east impacts the system, eventually resulting in a slow weakening trend. By 120 hours, the system is expected to pass over cooler water, but the intensity will hold steady or drop very slowly at that point due to an injection of baroclinic support. Beyond the forecast period, subtropical transition appears likely.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 21P, which is located approximately 359 NM east of Noumea, New Caledonia

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a broad cyclonic turning with convection being sheared to the east. Another pass further
emphasizes the elongated frontal nature of 21p with higher winds (30- 35 knots) only partially wrapping into an ill-defined center.

Environmental conditions are marginally unfavorable with the cyclone currently in an of higher vertical wind shear (25-30 knots), and poor poleward outflow and offset by relatively warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that the subtropical system 21P will track southeastward into cooler waters with a broad and asymmetric wind field.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 38 to 43 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds were 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a 15 NM ragged eye feature with deep convective bands wrapping around the northwest and northeast into the center. Clear dry air borders the western periphery of the tropical cyclone. Water vapor imagery reveals poleward and eastward outflow.

Tropical cyclone 22S will continue to be driven by a subtropical ridge located to the east. in the near-term forecast, the system will track poleward for the first 48 hours, then will curve southeastward after passing the ridge axis. The system will remain in a favorable environment for the first 24 hours of the forecast, allowing for the peak intensity of 105 knots.

High vertical wind shear will erode the circulation after 24 hours, initiating a decline in intensity through the end of the forecast period. The vertical wind shear will remain unfavorable above 20 knots, and baroclinic forcing between 72-96 hours will result in extratropical transition.

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad tropical cyclone with deep convective bands wrapping into the low level circulation center (llcc). Strong poleward and moderate equatorward outflow is evident on water vapor imagery.

Tropical cyclone 23S will slowly track southeastward slowly while in a competing steering environment for the entirety of the forecast period. In the near-term, the deep-layer ridge to the east will influence the direction of the system, and the ridge to the west will slow the track speed. After 72 hours, the eastern ridge will build and force the system to curve southward.

The system will slowly intensify to a peak of 80 knots through the first 24 hours of the forecast while vertical wind shear is low, upper-level divergence is supportive, and sea surface temperatures are warm. The track speed will slow significantly between 24-36 hours, resulting in significant upwelling of cool water and a lack of support for further intensification. The system will weaken slowly for the remainder of
the forecast period.