Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, February 26, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 551 NM east of Cairns, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Seru) is located approximately 273 NM east of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance) is located approximately 174 NM north-northwest of St. Denis, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 110 NM south of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 12, sustained winds were 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows the system has begun to track poleward after coming out of a slow looping motion in a col between the near equatorial ridge to the north and the steering str to the northeast. The system has mostly maintained its convective structure as the favorable environment is offset by localized cooler sst due to upwelling in the col.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low vws, and moderate poleward outflow offset by the localized cool sst.

TC Alfred will continue to track southward under the steering influence of the str to the northeast. After 72 hours, the str will reorient and build to the east and drive the cyclone southwestward.

The marginally favorable environment will maintain the current intensity up to 36 hours; afterward, a modest intensification to a peak of 80 knots by 48 hours is expected as poleward outflow increases.

Weakening will commence after 48 hours due to increasing vws, reducing the system to 65 knots by 120 hours as it approaches the central east coast of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Seru)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

As indicated in animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery, tropical cyclone 21P continues to struggle under persistent high vertical wind shear (vws), while maintaining an asymmetric core of flaring deep convection over the low-level circulation center (llcc).

This has made it difficult to accurately track the llcc over the past 12 hours especially considering the lack of decent microwave imagery. However, a fortuitous 261050z ascat-c bullseye image revealed a well-defined center.

Initial conditions are marginally favorable, with the high vws and dry air entrainment offset by warm sst values and moderate outflow.

TC 21P is forecast to track southeastward to east-southeastward along the southwestern periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge through 48 hours, with gradual weakening under increasing vws and increasing dry air entrainment.

After 48 hours, the system will track under the subtropical westerlies and track east-northeastward to northeastward as a strong low-level high builds to the south and east blocking any poleward progress. TC 21P will dissipate by 72 hours as it lingers within the increasingly hostile environment.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a strengthening system, with attempting to develop an irregular central dense overcast (cdo), but currently struggling against persistent moderate southerly shear.

The convection is rather disorganized with multiple disjointed areas of deep convective activity. Based on a color-enhanced microwave image, the primary focus of the vortex development appears to be in the southwestern area of convection.

The environment is favorable and improving, with very warms ssts, good equatorward outflow and plenty of moisture, offset for the moment by the persistent moderate southerly shear.

TC 22S is forecast to continue tracking eastward over the next 12 to 18 hours, slowly arcing over to a more southeastward track by 24 hours, along the southern side of the ner to the north. By 36 hours, the primary steering mechanism shifts to the north-south oriented subtropical ridge (str) to the east, causing TC 22S to accelerate southward after this point. The system is expected to pass directly over, or very near to the island of La Reunion around 48 hours, before picking up additional speed as it continues poleward. The system will round the ridge axis around 72 hours then turn gradually southeastward through the remainder of the forecast period.

In terms of intensity, the system is starting to develop upshear convection and looks to be setting the stage for potential rapid intensification (ri) within the next 12 to 24 hours. In all likelihood, the pace of intensification will be relatively slow for the next 12 hours as the system continues to symmetrize.

Environmental shear is forecast to drop off after 12 hours, which will allow for ri thereafter. Conditions will be highly favorable to ri from 12 hours up through 48 hours, or just prior to passage over or near La Reunion. The forecast calls for a peak of 100 knots by  36 hours, carrying through 48 hours, though the actual peak may be slightly higher as indicated by some of the ri guidance.

After passing La Reunion, conditions rapidly deteriorate with southeasterly shear expected to quickly increase to more than 40 knots by 72 hours, increasing further through the remainder of the forecast period. The system will begin subtropical transition by 120 hours as it moves under the subtropical westerlies and cool ocean waters.

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broadly organized tropical cyclone 23S (Honde) with spiral bands of flaring, deep convection wrapping into the low-level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental conditions are favorable for intensification, with warm sea surface temperatures (sst) and low (0-5 kts) vertical wind shear (vws), as portrayed by recent continuous consolidation of convective banding.

Tropical cyclone 23S is forecast to track southeastward, while under competing steering environment, which will increase uncertainty and may lead to erratic motion throughout the forecast period. Towards the end of the track forecast period, a building subtropical ridge (str) to the east will slow the system down, while the ridge over Africa will act as a blocking pattern on the western side. Therefore track guidance around 120 hours and beyond is highly uncertain, with the potential for the system to become quasi-stationary or move in a looping pattern.

In terms of intensity, there is some potential (25-35 percent) for rapid intensification (ri) as indicated by multiple in-house ri aids. At the same time, deterministic guidance offers a more modest approach, with the multi-model consensus estimating a near-ri intensification throughout 36 hours, followed by a very minor weakening. Some models, like gfs and hafs indicate a potential for re-intensification past 96 hours, further increasing uncertainty.

Environmental conditions and potential land interaction will also impact intensity forecast, both being heavily dependent on the actual track and the dominating steering pattern.