Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, February 25, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 306 NM east-northeast of Willis Island, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Seru) is located approximately 161 NM southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone 20S (Bianca) is located approximately 674 NM west of Learmonth, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance) is located approximately 212 NM northwest of St. Denis, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde) is located approximately 120 NM west-southwest of Europa Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 10, sustained winds were 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows the system has begun to track poleward as it further consolidated and deepened. Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear (vws), warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate dual outflow.

Tropical cyclone 18P will continue to track southward under the steering influence of the building ner. The favorable environment will fuel steady intensification to a peak of 85kts by 24 hours. Afterward, increasing vws will mainly be responsible for its gradual weakening down to 50kts by 120 hours, as it approaches the central east coast of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Seru)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 55 knots with gusts to 70 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a consolidating tropical cyclone 21P. While the system
benefits from moderate poleward and equatorward outflow, the spiral bands of deep convection are wrapping into the low-level circulation (llcc), with persistent convection on top.

Environment remains favorable for tropical cyclone intensification, with aforementioned good outflow, warm sea surface temperatures (sst), and moderate (10-15 kts) vertical wind shear (vws).

TC 21P is forecast to track southeastward, under the influence of a str to the east-southeast. Between 72 hours
and 120 hours, another ridge will begin building to the northwest of the system. The competing steering will lead to the system to slowing down. At the same time, environmental conditions will begin to deteriorate around 72 hours, with rapidly increasing vws and cooling sst. Therefore TC 21P is forecast to begin dissipating towards the
end of the current forecast period.

In regards to the track between 96 and 120 hours, the system is forecast to make a slight turn towards northeast, assuming the vortex will survive the increasingly less favorable environment.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 20S (Bianca)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds were 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots

Despite a steadily degrading environment characterized by low to moderate vertical wind shear (vws) and cooling sea surface temperatures, tropical cyclone Bianca has maintained a 15-20nm ragged eye and compact, cocooned convective core sustained by moderate poleward outflow. The system has maintained a deep moist core despite extensive dry air present over the western and northern peripheries. A microwave image reveals exposed, shallow banding associated with the dry air and indicates erosion of the convective core over the northern semicircle. However, deep convective banding remains entrenched over the southern semicircle wrapping into a well-defined microwave eye feature.

TC 20S will continue to track southward through the forecast period along the western periphery of the steering ridge and will begin to interact with a broad upper-level subtropical trough and subtropical westerlies near 24 hours. Consequently, vws will increase steadily through the forecast period, with high vws (40-50 knots) expected after 24 hours. Additionally, sea surface temperatures will cool steadily after 24 hours and significant dry air entrainment will occur.

This will lead to significant weakening as the system progresses poleward. The current forecast favors a subtropical transition. However, there is a possibility of dissipation occurring before the system fully transitions into a subtropical low near 48 hours due to the deteriorating environmental conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Garance)

According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) obscured beneath a region of flaring deep convection. A microwave image reveals deep convective banding wrapping from the western quadrant into the northern quadrant of the system. The overall convective structure has improved slightly despite the strong southerly vertical wind shear (vws) evident on animated water vapor imagery, with recent ascat data indicating 30-35 knot winds over the northern semicircle.

Tropical cyclone 22S is tracking slowly eastward to east-northeastward under the steering influence of a weak
near-equatorial ridge (ner) positioned to the north. This track motion will continue until about 36 hours when the system will transition to the steering influence of a deep-layered subtropical ridge (str) positioned to the east, which will result in a sharp southward turn by 48 hours.

The system will intensify slowly through 12 hours due to the persistent high vws. However, vws will gradually decrease after 12 hours allowing the system to consolidate and intensify at a faster rate, with a moderate chance of rapid intensification from 36 to 72 hours when a vigorous equatorward outflow channel is established. By 72 hours, TC 22S will accelerate southward then recurve southeastward after 96 hours.

Substantial weakening is expected after 96 hours as the system begins to interact with near jet strength subtropical westerlies. The high vws (25-30 knots) in concert with cool sst values will serve to steadily weaken the system.

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Honde)

According to the JTWC warning number 1, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest SS19P, which is located approximately 348 NM south of Tonga.

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts a weak frontal system with convection that is being sheared to the southeast of a now fully exposed low level circulation (llc).

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions for tropical
transition defined by a deep layer of dry air from the northwest being advected over the system, strong westerlies aloft, high (30-35 knot) vertical wind shear aloft, and warm sea surface temperature.

Global deterministic models are in good agreement on a southeastward track with a broad and asymmetric wind field over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 to 40 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.