Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, February 23, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 818 NM north of Brisbane, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Rae) is located approximately 174 NM east-northeast of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 20S (Bianca) is located approximately 584 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts deep convective bands wrapping into an obscured low-level circulationcenter. Cirrus filaments lead into a strong poleward and eastward outflow channel enhanced by the jet to the south.

tropical cyclone 18P will slowly curve from an eastward track during the first 24 hours of the forecast period to a south-southeastward track by the end of the forecast period under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge to the northeast.

The system is expected to intensify to a peak of 80 knots within the first 48 hours due to low vertical wind shear and continued strong poleward outflow. After 48 hours, vertical wind shear will increase unfavorably to 20-25 knots resulting in weakening to 60 knots by the end of the forecast. despite the unfavorable shear, sea surface temperatures and outflow will remain supportive.

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Rae)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts deep convection obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc) of tropical cyclone 19P. Dry air wrapping in from the southwest reveals the tight low-level cloud banding circulating into the obscured center. water vapor imagery reveals strong radial outflow associated with a point source aloft and highly favorable upper-level divergence.

Tropical cyclone 19P will continue to be driven southward on the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. After 36 hours, the system will curve southeastward having
crossed the ridge axis.

In the near-term forecast, the environment will be favorable for intensification to a peak of 80 knots due to low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and strong
divergence aloft. Between 48-72 hours, TC 19P will begin subtropical transition as the system tracks over cool sea surface temperatures and begin to interact with the jet to the south. The system will weaken as the system undergoes subtropical transition and becomes fully subtropical by 72 hours.

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 20S (Bianca)

According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts deep convection partially obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc) of tropical cyclone 20S. A slight vertical tilt of the system reveals low-level cloud banding circulating in the eastern periphery of the system. Cirrus filaments exhaust outwards from the center due to strong upper-level divergence and poleward outflow into the jet to the south.

Tropical cyclone 20S will round the periphery of a subtropical ridge located over western Australia, tracking southwestward until 48 hours, at which time the system will cross over the ridge axis and curve south-southeastward.

The environment will be favorable for intensification to a peak of 70 knots during the first 48 hours of the forecast while vertical wind shear is low and a poleward outflow channel feeds into the upper-level jet to the south.

Between 48 and 72 hours, the system will pass into cool sea surface temperatures and embed within the jet, resulting in high vertical wind shear and weakening to 60 knots by the end of the forecast. The system will undergo subtropical transition between 48-72 hours and become fully subtropical at 72 hours.

Southwest Pacific

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 523 NM west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji

Animated enhanced satellite imagery (eir) and a 240151z 89 ghz gmi microwave image depict a consolidating circulation with persistent convection building over a fully obscured
llcc and formative banding located on the southern periphery . A 232208z ascat metop c pass indicate strong winds (25-30 knots) wrapping into the center of a more symmetrical wind field.

Environmental conditions are favorable for development with warm sea surface temperature, good poleward outflow aloft and low to moderate (10-15kt) vertical wind shear.

Global models are confident the area of convection 96P will continue to intensify over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 665 NM southeast of Tonga

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi spectral satellite imagery and 232113z gmi 89ghz microwave image depict a broad area of circulation with a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with flaring convection isolated to the southern periphery of the circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 92P is currently in a marginally unfavorable environment with cool sea surface temperatures, moderate to high (25-30knot) vertical wind shear, and moderate outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that 92P will continue to track southeastward as a subtropical low. JTWC will continue to closely monitor Invest 92P for signs of tropical transition.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.