Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, February 24, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 537 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Rae) is located approximately 272 NM southeast of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 21P is located approximately 158 NM east-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone 20S (Bianca) is located approximately 591 NM southeast of Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred)

According to the JTWC warning number 7, sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone (tc) 18p nearly quasi-stationary while in a weak steering environment. cyclical deep convection obscures the low-level circulation center(llcc). A slot of clear skies indicates dry air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system and exposes the low-level cloud bands tightly winding into center. Water vapor imagery reveals weak radial upper-level divergence with a strong poleward outflow channel feeding into the subtropical jet to the
south.

Tropical cyclone (tc) 18P will slowly meander southward increasing track speed as a weak near equatorial ridge to the west builds westward gradually throughout the forecast period. Between 96 and 120 hours, the system will begin to track southwestward driven by the same building ridge.

The system will gradually intensify over the next 48 hours while in an environment with highly favorable upper-level divergence, moderate 10-15kt vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. However, the slow motion of the TC in the near-term forecast will result in upwelling and a depletion of ocean heat content, creating a marginally favorable environment for development and gradual rate of intensification.

After 48 hours, the system will move out of the region of upwelling into favorable sea surface temperatures but vertical wind shear increases 15-20kt and dry air will impinge the northwestern periphery of the system. The weakening trend of TC 18P will be slow and gradual in the careful balance of favorable and unfavorable features, weakening to 70kts by the end of the forecast.

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Rae)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds were 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts deep convection wrapping around the low-level circulation center (llcc), clearly attempting to develop an eye but not quite there. The center is clearing slightly, partially revealing the llcc.

Tropical cyclone 19P will track slowly to the south over the next 12 hours before curving southeastward as the system rounds the western periphery of the ner. The system will intensify slightly to a peak of 70kts over the next 12 hours while in a favorable environment with moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a strong poleward outflow channel.

However, as the system tracks poleward towards the subtropical jet to the south, vertical wind shear will increase and inject dry air into the vortex. The system will move into an area of cooler water at 36 hours which will initiate subtropical transition in tandem with the jet influence. By 48 hours, subtropical transition will be complete.

Tropical Cyclone 21P

According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 20S (Bianca)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts low-level cloud banding wrapping into a cloud-filled ragged eye that has developed over the last six hours. Cirrus filaments expand from the center of the system indicating radial outflow, however, the strongest outflow region is a poleward outflow channel feeds into the subtropical jet to the south. Tropical cyclone 20S will curve southward on the periphery of a subtropical ridge for the remainder of the forecast period.

The environment will be favorable for development during the first 12 hours of the forecast with low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and strong divergence aloft. An approaching upper-level trough from the west will introduce high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment beginning at 36 hours, initiating weakening.

The system will become embedded within the upper-level trough at 36 hours and pass over cool sea surface temperatures, causing subtropical transition to commence. Subtropical transition will complete by 48 hours at an intensity of 55kts.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 116 NM west of Europa Island

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) reveals a broad low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep, flaring convection throughout the system. A 242237z amsr2 gw1 89ghz  microwave image shows fragmented, formative banding along the northern periphery of the circulation. A recent observation from Europa Island at 241700z reports northerly winds at 30 knots and a sea level pressure of 1001 mb.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for development with low vertical wind shear (vws) of 10-15 knots, warm sea surface temperatures and moderate poleward outflow.

Both deterministic and ensemble models are in agreement that invest 975 is likely to experience further consolidation with a southward track over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to High.

>>> There’s an area of convection being referred to as Invest 97S, which is located approximately 282 NM northwest of La Reunion Island

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a rapidly consolidating low-level circulation center (llcc), with flaring convection over the center. A 241725z ascat metop-b image reveals 35 knot winds within the northeastern quadrant.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (vws) of 10-15 knots, good equatorward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Both deterministic and ensemble models continue to agree, forecasting gradual development of Invest 97S over the next 24 hours with a generally eastward track.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains High.