Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, March 7, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) is located approximately 39 NM north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

Southwestern Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Alfred) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 30, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows TC18P with a fully-exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) as remaining supportive convection in the southern semicircle is sheared to the east-northeast due to west-southwesterly vertical wind shear between 40-45 knots, while the systems associated wind field interacts with coastal Brisbane to the west and Moreton Island to the east. After TC 18P makes landfall, further weakening is forecast as the llcc encounters enhanced frictional effects through land interaction.

The initial position is placed with high confidence based on local surface observations indicating the well-defined surface circulation remains over northern Moreton Bay. The initial intensity is assessed with high confidence based on a scatterometry pass showing two isolated areas of 35 knot intensities in the southeast quadrant of the broader surface turning.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98S, which is located approximately 625 NM west of Coco Islands

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a quickly consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with convective banding wrapping into the center.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment with moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, a moderate poleward outflow channel aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement on a southwestern track over the next 24 hours, with ecmwf ensemble being the most aggressive overall.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours  is upgraded to high.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 332 NM north-northeast of Toamasina, Madagascar

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a broad area of cyclonic rotation with deep convection building over the center.

Environmental conditions are currently marginally favorable with moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, decent poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models and ensembles are in good agreement that 99S will continue to consolidate and develop over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.