Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 14, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 1170 NM east-southeast of Mathurin, Rodrigues Island

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Zelia) is located approximately 29 NM east-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 28, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc), which is devoid of significant convection, particularly across the northern portions
of the circulation. A microwave image confirms the northern half of the system is quite shallow, with significant dry air above about 700mb, while the southern hemisphere of the system is much moister with moderate convective activity.

The environment is marginal at best, with relatively cool sea surface temperatures, low to moderate northerly shear, moderate poleward outflow and dry mid-level air.

Tropical cyclone 14S is forecast to track southwestward through the majority of the forecast period, though major shifts in track speed are expected. A deep mid-latitude trough is starting to move west to east far to the south and breaking down the ridging pattern.

Within the next 12 to 24 hours, the trough will pass by to the southeast, but the str currently steering the system will be replaced by a col region, resulting in a fairly drastic slow-down. A transient ridge moves in behind the trough fairly quickly and by 36 hours, TC 14S will once again, accelerate along the northern side of this transient ridge.

The pattern repeats itself, as another mid-latitude trough passes by to the south beginning around 60 hours and the system will slow down once more. This time around however, the models disagree sharply on what occurs after the trough passes. The GFS shows another transient ridge moving in, pushing TC 14S westward once again, after 96 hours.

The ECMWF shows no transient ridge and pulls TC 14S to the east and into the trough. The more likely scenario is that a transient ridge will push in behind the trough but with such a large disparity in the available guidance the forecast calls for the system to become quasi-stationary at the end of the forecast, until a firmer model solution presents itself.

TC 14S is expected to maintain its current intensity for the next 12 hours or so, then intensify slightly as it taps into some enhanced outflow into the jet stream associated with the deep trough passing to the south. By 72 hours, the system begins to weaken steadily as it moves into cooler waters and is overwhelmed by high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Zelia) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 13, sustained winds were 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a ragged, cloud-filled eye, which is showing signs of rapid deterioration.  Radar data from Port Hedland indicates the 7nm wide eye made landfall east of Port Hedland at approximately 140430z.

Intensity at landfall was estimated at 115 knots and as the system continues to move inland at about 7 knots it is quickly weakening. TC 17s will track southward along the western side of a deep-layer subtropical ridge (str) centered over north-central Australia through the forecast period.

The system will rapidly weaken as it passes over the desert region of western Australia, will full dissipation expected within the next 48 hours.