Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, February 13, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located approximately 918 NM southwest of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Zelia) is located approximately 48 NM north of Port Hedland, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah)

According to the JTWC warning number 26, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts an exposed low level circulation center (llcc), with weak convection confined to the southeastern sector of the rotation. A microwave image depicted a symmetric low-level structure, with shallow rainbands wrapping into a defined llcc but for the most part the circulation was devoid of significant convection. An earlier rcm-2 sar pass revealed winds of 64 knots in the southeastern quadrant, but the remainder of the wind field was about 60 knots or less.

The environment is marginal, with low to moderate northerly shear, marginal sea surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow.

TC 14S will continue to track towards the southwest along the southwestern periphery of the deep str to the east for the next 24 hours. Track speeds begin to slow down as early as 12 hours, but the brakes are really applied after 24 hours, when a mid-latitude trof will pass by to the south and break down the ridging pattern.

The trof is not expected to be strong enough to pull TC 14S poleward but the system slows to just 4-5 knots through 48 hours in this weakened steering pattern. The trof is quickly replaced by a transient ridge quickly moving eastward to the south of TC 14S. This ridge remains south of TC 14S through
about 72 hours and the system will pick up speed once again during this time frame but remain tracking towards the southwest.

Another trof will pass by to south around 96 hours, generating another weak steering pattern, with the resultant slowdown in track speeds after 96 hours. This trof may be strong enough to pull 14S poleward, though there is a high degree of uncertainty between the models on the strength of the trof and how much of an impact it will have.

TC 14S will slowly but steadily weaken 36 hours due to persistent moderate shear, marginal sea surface temperatures and dry mid-level air intrusion. A brief period of re-intensification is expected between 48 and 72 hours as the system taps into a robust poleward outflow channel, while the other environmental factors remain relatively steady-state.

The system quickly weakens after 72 hours as it moves into steadily cooler waters, and both shear and dry air increase. The system is predicted to remain warm core throughout the full forecast period and no subtropical or extratropical transition is forecast.

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Zelia)

According to the JTWC warning number 12, sustained winds were 115 knots with gusts to 140 knots

Tropical cyclone 17S (Zelia) remains quite formidable, with the latest animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery showing rapid redevelopment of a pinhole eye feature, measuring just 7 NM across. A series of microwave images over the past six hours suggests that TC 17S did not complete the eyewall replacement cycle (erc) that began earlier in the day. Another image depicts an asymmetric inner-core structure, with a very thin eyewall along the southeastern side of the eye, while the eyewall is much more impressive across the northern hemisphere of the circulation. This may be due to some dry air and subsidence, as depicted in both the hafs-a and hwrf model cross-sections. While the pinhole eye has recently reemerged, cloud top temperatures have continued to increase as well.

The environment remains favorable, with zesty sea surface temperatures right along the coast, high ohc, very strong dual-channel outflow and low deep-layer wind shear. The only possible negative influences are the higher shear at the outflow layer and the dry air in the low- to mid-levels to the south of the core of the system.

TC 17S is still drifting slowly and aimlessly, lingering just offshore to the north of Port Hedland. The most recent animated eir suggests the system is performing another pirouette or small loop, as it remains within the large col region with little to no major steering influence. The ridging over northern Australia is expected to build over the next day, while the str to the west moves further west, allowing the system to come more under the steering influence of the str to the east.

However, that process will not fully exert itself until after landfall and thus, TC 17S is expected to slowly drift southward until it makes landfall, around 24 hours. The exact time of landfall is highly uncertain due to the weak steering influences, and significant shifts in the timing of landfall are possible. The current forecast anticipate the system moving inland just west of Port Hedland within the next 24 hours, then accelerating towards the south along the west side of the building str to the east.

The inner-core of TC 17S is extremely small, and thus subject to rapid fluctuations in intensity, which are highly likely in the near-term, as microscale inner-core factors will now be the primary driver of the intensity from this point forward. Additionally, the longer the system continues  to lollygag off the coast the more that upwelling will play a negative role. The forecast calls for intensification to 140 knots by 12 hours, and it is possible that additional intensification up to the point of landfall may occur. once ashore, the system will rapidly weaken and fully dissipate within 72 hours.

Southwest Pacific Ocean

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 16P, which is located approximately 211 NM east of Noumea, New Caledonia

This system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with sheared convection in the southern periphery. An ascat pass reveals higher winds (35-40 knots) in the southwestern portion.

Environmental analysis indicates a moderately unfavorable environment for tropical transition with a deep layer of dry air over the top of the system, moderate westerly flow aloft and borderline sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that as 16P slowly transitions, south winds will slightly intensify due to barolcinic forcing before the system becomes absorbed into the long wave pattern.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 38 to 43 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.